Cell prices continue to decline, while polysilicon prices remain stable temporarily [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the price index for N-type polysilicon was 35.21 yuan/kg. The price of N-type recharging polysilicon ranged from 35-38 yuan/kg, while the price of N-type mixed polysilicon was 31-36 yuan/kg. Overall, polysilicon prices remained largely stable. Multiple transactions occurred in the polysilicon market before the holiday, with small producers closing deals at 32 yuan/kg and some large producers achieving transactions for high-grade mixed polysilicon at 35 yuan/kg. Major enterprises maintained agreed quotations of 36-37 yuan/kg for dense recharging polysilicon. Post-holiday market transactions were weak. A domestic base resumed production this week, attracting market attention. Prices remained stable for the time being, with market focus on subsequent supply conditions and the latest wafer transaction outcomes.

Wafer: This week, the price of N-type 183 wafers ranged from 0.93-0.95 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were priced at 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece, and 210 wafers were priced at 1.25-1.3 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable for the time being. Market transactions were limited before the holiday, but are expected to gradually pick up post-holiday, with market attention on the final actual transaction prices. Domestic wafer production schedules for June are expected to decrease by approximately 2GW MoM.

Cell: For P-type cells, PERC182 market quotations ranged from 0.275-0.295 yuan/W, with prices declining amid strong export demand. PERC210 cells, having seen no transactions for an extended period, had their price points removed around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall demand for P-type cells remained volatile but stable. For N-type cells, firstly, among TOPCon cells, the mainstream quotation for 183N was 0.25 yuan/W, for 210RN it was 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.26-0.27 yuan/W, and for 210N it was 0.26-0.265 yuan/W. Secondly, the mainstream quotation for HJT 30% silver-coated copper (with 25% or higher efficiency) was 0.34-0.35 yuan/W, remaining stable.

Comparing with TOPCon market conditions last week, vertically, the overall cell prices continued to decline. Horizontally, differences in market conditions across wafer sizes persisted. The price of 183N fell further, reaching a historical low of 0.25 yuan/W, with even small transactions occurring at 0.23 and 0.24 yuan/W, primarily due to price-cutting strategies adopted by producers facing significant inventory pressure. The market transaction price for 210RN decreased due to large-scale low-price shipments by certain enterprises at month-end. 210RN orders increased driven by demand, with producers generally optimistic about demand prospects in June, leading to price recovery. It is expected that the divergence in market trends across wafer sizes will remain stable in the near term.

In June, producers continued to cut production, with global production schedules within the sample ranging from 56-57GW, a 5.75% decrease MoM. The extent of production cuts slowed compared to May. Overall, the tightening of solar cell supply was less than expected, and inventory buildup is expected to continue in early June. In the short term, attention can be paid to market conditions across wafer sizes. With demand for 210RN recovering in June, there is room for price adjustments to restore profit margins.

PV module: This week, PV module prices showed mixed performance. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects ranged from 0.692 to 0.701 yuan/W, with an average price decline of 0.43%. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 210mm modules ranged from 0.707 to 0.716 yuan/W, with an average price decline of 0.42%. The price of distributed N-type 182mm modules hovered around 0.685-0.687 yuan/W, with the average price remaining flat. The price of distributed N-type 210mm modules was 0.69-0.692 yuan/W, with the average price remaining flat. The price of distributed N-type 210R modules ranged from 0.683 to 0.69 yuan/W, with an average price decline of 0.44%. The reason for the price trend of rising first and then falling this week was the tight spot supply coupled with weakening demand expectations. After experiencing large-scale installation rushes in April-May and a minor "rush-then-install" phase in June, as of now, there are still regional policy implementation documents that have not been finalized. It is an indisputable fact that modules have undergone significant destocking following the surge in domestic demand. Therefore, there is a tight spot supply situation in the spot market. However, with the sharp decline in distributed orders and the wait-and-see attitude in centralized projects in June, it has been difficult for the reported price increases to translate into actual transactions, and prices have declined along with the supply and demand trends.

EVA: This week, the price of PV-grade EVA ranged from 10,000 to 10,400 yuan/mt, with the center of transaction prices continuing to decline. The prices of foaming-grade and cable-grade EVA remained stable at lower levels. On the demand side, the new order prices for film in June declined, module scheduled production decreased, and demand continued to weaken. Some petrochemical plants are expected to undergo maintenance and switch production. It is anticipated that EVA prices will remain weak and stable in the near future.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, and the price range for EPE film is 13,900-14,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, the module scheduled production has decreased, prices have pulled back, and demand is weak. On the cost side, the price of PV-grade EVA continues to decline, providing cost support for the downward trend in film prices. It is expected that film prices will remain stable in the near future.

POE: The domestic delivery-to-factory price of POE has stabilized at 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt. Under the dual pressures of gradually weakening demand and the successive release of new capacity, it is expected that the price of PV-grade POE will decline under pressure.

PV glass: This week, some PV glass enterprises continued to lower their quotations. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass in China is 12.5 yuan/m², with some enterprises lowering their quotations to 12.0 yuan/m². The mainstream quotation for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 20.0 yuan/m², and the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm back-coated PV glass is 11.0 yuan/m². This week, the new order quotations for domestic PV glass have been lowered. As of now, the quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 12.0-12.5 yuan/m². Since June, with the further decline in module scheduled production, glass enterprises have faced significant pressure in taking orders. Coupled with the start-up and increased output of newly invested glass furnaces in the early stage, there is a clear trend of surplus glass supply. Under the dual pressures of supply and demand, glass prices have mainly declined this month and are expected to operate close to the cost line. With the subsequent competition among glass enterprises for orders, there is still an expectation of further price declines for glass.

High-purity quartz sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices have temporarily remained stable. The current market quotes are as follows: Inner layer sand is priced at 60,000-70,000 yuan per mt, middle layer sand at 33,000-43,000 yuan per mt, and outer layer sand at 17,000-24,000 yuan per mt. Prices have temporarily stabilized. This week, the downstream market demand for domestic high-purity quartz sand has remained weak, with limited purchasing by crucible enterprises. However, the frequency of sand price declines has been slightly higher recently, and the willingness of sand enterprises to offer discounts for shipments has slightly diminished. Nevertheless, considering subsequent demand, there is still downside room for wafer production schedules due to sluggish end-use demand. The support for sand prices is limited, and recently, the prices of imported sand have also shown signs of loosening, with a significant potential for further reductions in the future. Overall, quartz sand prices are still on a downward trajectory, with further declines expected in the future.

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